Friction and Fiction

No matter where you live in the United States, if you are a Democrat you probably feel more important this election than you have in quite a while. Even Puerto Rico, with its 55 delegates, could be — dare I say? — vital in determining the outcome of the Democratic race.

Tonight, we will hear from Mississippi, a state that has historically been lost in the all too deterministic post-Super Tuesday shuffle. But this time, their pronouncement will carry immense weight.

Because of the delicate balance between Obama and Clinton, who both seem to be teetering on having an upper hand, Mississippi’s small voting population could tip the balance just enough to give one candidate the “momentum” heading into the long and violent stretch toward Pennsylvania on April 22.

A quick look at the current Mississippi polls, as well as the voting demographic and relevant issues, shows that Barack Obama will most likely walk away with the state with no real contention. And so, it appears that Obama will pull out the fifth switcheroo of the race thus far (the first being his upset in Iowa, the second Clinton’s reclamation of front-runner status in New Hampshire and into Super Tuesday, the third Obama’s surge and 12 straight victories, the fourth Clinton’s victory in Texas and solid lead in Ohio).

But it is worth noting, even if Obama gets a boost tonight, Pennsylvania will be a huge uphill battle for him. Clinton is standing at the top of the hill throwing rocks down on his grass roots minions who valiantly, though ineffectively, charge upward in massive numbers. We’re left wondering: even if Obama gains back a bit of momentum, how much can Mississippi actually help him? This in turn, leads to a broader question: no matter what Obama does now, is there any saving grace for him on the horizon?

It’s true, he has run an incredible campaign, and he has undermined Clinton’s air of inevitability in a way that, one year ago, no one would have been able to imagine. But by running on victories from caucuses and red states to aim himself at the larger challenges, he has shown us that, at one point, he will run out of fuel. Mississippi is, indeed, the last little bit in his tank. He will win, and the victory will help him somewhat. But Pennsylvania is solidly Clinton territory, as she retains an almost 12 point lead there.

After Pennsylvania, there will be other little bits of fuel that trickle in for Obama, like North Carolina, probably Kentucky and Montana, etc. But with the looming question of Michigan and Florida, it’s doubtful that he will mount a surge in a potential revote in either of the two states.

However, Florida and Michigan may, in fact, present him with an opportunity. If we were to count the original two contests, then Clinton would only be ahead in popular vote by 20,000, and Obama wasn’t even on the Michigan ballot. So even this obstacle might be surmountable.

Still, the point is that Obama will get no more breaks. Every delegate that he earns will have to be fought for. Clinton has dug in and recently has even resorted to tactics like spreading rumors of a Clinton/Obama ticket. That way, people could vote for Clinton and still not feel as though they were abandoning the message of hope presented by Obama. Obama has made it clear that he is “not running for vice president.” This is just an example of the obstacles now before the Obama campaign.

It looks like we’re back to the nitty-gritty, down to the wire politics again. If Obama can be within eight points of Clinton in Pennsylvania and remain unscathed until North Carolina, then he still stands a good shot. Obama is an inspirer, an orator, an energizer. But, realisitically, he has more convincing and less energizing to do if he wants to hold out that long. He has to start using his remaining fuel wisely, instead of holding the accelerator down in that exciting way he does so often.