Where Do You Stand?
I hope no one’s terribly shocked by the results from tonight’s races. Obama was indeed supposed to win Virginia, Maryland, and D.C. Likewise, although Huckabee put up a substantial fight in Virginia, John McCain fulfilled expectations and won all three contests.
So really, the results tonight were not all that telling of any new trends or any potential changes in campaigning. What was telling, however, was the geographical location occupied by each candidate tonight.
John McCain gave his victory speech from Alexandria, Virginia. This gives us several impressions. First, it tells us that McCain is in no hurry. He did not hop on a flight to one of the next states as soon as the polls closed. Rather, he stuck around for a while to revel in the victory. Second, McCain spoke from the one state that could have posed a problem to him tonight. This is, essentially, a symbolic end to a primordial territorial dispute with his more timid opponent.
Which brings us to Huckabee. Scared out of the Mid-Atlantic by the big, bad McCain, he went running home to Little Rock, Arkansas. Not anticipating a victory, he went to safe soil, where he could rely on ambient support without having to constantly campaign for it. If, by some miracle, Huckabee had won Virginia tonight, then his presence in Arkansas would have been empowering, enabling him to play king of the castle for a night before heading out to Wisconsin tomorrow.
Which, in turn, brings us to Obama, who was in Madison. This is key as Wisconsin could be the icing on Obama’s thus far eight win streak. If Obama can do well there, that will put him on the offensive, and in a good position to charge into Ohio and Texas on March 4th. He might not win these two, but if he can put up a fight and keep Clinton from stomping him, while at the same time collecting enough delegate support to negate a potential Clinton win in these states, then he will be in good shape to challenge her in the remaining states, although Pennsylvania would be a big challenge for him.
Obama won among hispanic voters in Virginia tonight, by a thin margin. This could signal a move of hispanics away from Clinton, which would threaten her lead in Texas, but more likely, the change is because the Virginia hispanic population is largely, although not indefinitely, more removed from the issue of illegal immigration. Also, Obama, with Ted Kennedy at his side, has been reaching out to many hispanic voters. My brother volunteers at the Latin American Community Center in Wilmington, Delaware, and Senator Kennedy made a short visit there last week on his tour of Super Tuesday states. His efforts seem to be paying off. Regardless, any move in hispanic voters toward Obama signals trouble for Clinton in Texas.
Which brings us to El Paso, where tonight, Hillary Clinton rallied support and gave a speech subtlely targeted at the (until recently) rather empty promises of her opponent. While Obama has headed for Wisconsin to assume the offensive, Clinton has retreated temporarily into her Texan stronghold, trying to maintain support and ready the gates for an all out attack. She is playing the defender now, a role that suits her less and less as she becomes more desperate.
So everyone just sit back and relax. Turn off your ears. You don’t have to listen to what the candidates are saying tonight. It’s just the same shtick they’ve been throwing at you for the past year. Instead, read between the lines — look behind the empty baby-kissing, promise-giving, empathetic smiles – find exactly where the candidates are standing, and you will see a different story. A territorial dispute settled on the Republican side with a clear winner kicking back and the little guy smitten. And a coming political battle on the Democratic side, the likes of which we have not seen in a quarter century.
