Obama Soars: Hillary’s Hiccup
I’m going to eat my words. I don’t do this much, but here goes. On January 22, I wrote:
The second reason that the Democratic race has lost its excitement is, whether we want to admit it or not, we all know the outcome. True, Obama will win South Carolina, but at the convention, Clinton will be the one at the podium, and there seems to be no way around it.
I was wrong. For several reasons, Obama has caught a wave of momentum, a wave that is far from dissipating. The reasons are as follows.
First, the chronological grouping of naturally Obama-supporting states has built his campaign quite a bit of speed. Clinton has not had a win since Super Tuesday; meanwhile, Obama continues his war of attrition by racking up the smaller states, which, just a short while ago, didn’t seem all that important to Clinton’s success. This trend will only continue with the Potomac primaries.
Second, Clinton has run into several internal problems with her own campaign. The switching of her chief of staff and her campaign manager signaled a move that had been waiting in the wings since just after the Iowa caucuses. Now, exigency has demanded its completion. Also, in the two days immediately after the February 5th primaries, Obama raised almost more than twice as much money as his opponent. Also, while totally understandable and even admirable, Clinton’s potential decision to not participate in the MSNBC debate may yet hurt her.
Third, Obama has started zeroing in on the arbitrary parts of his message of hope, and he is now providing some details as to what an Obama presidency might be like. He is expected to release a more detailed economic plan soon, and his federal grant money for college education in return for service has given many voters a warm, fuzzy feeling — one, I must admit, to which I am not immune.
Fourth, Obama is polling to be a stronger candidate in the general election than Clinton. The current RCP Averages have McCain up on Clinton by 1.6% and Obama over McCain by 3.3%. These early figures mean that Obama leads McCain by more than twice the lead that McCain has over Clinton. They are not be-all, end-all numbers, but they do signify a notable difference in electability, as Obama has been appealing to independents, many of whom would go to McCain in a McCain/Clinton showdown.
Fifth, as Bill Kristol noted in today’s New York Times, the superdelegates who have seemingly prematurely backed Clinton, may likely decide not to go down with a sinking ship should Obama pick up enough speed in the next couple weeks.
If we look at a map of the current Democratic results, we can see artificial borders that seem to appear between the 
Clinton and Obama strongholds. My first map to the right (clickable link to larger image) shows a gradient for the support of each candidate across the country. But the borders become even more apparent when we look at the next map (also clickable link to larger image), which shows my projected wins for Clinton and Obama. Using the bisector of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers and the 36th parallel 
of Missouri Compromise fame, we can see that the country is divided into quadrants, all with roughly similar population figures. For our purposes, Clinton has the Northeast and the Southwest, and Obama has everything else, the North/Mid-west and the Southeast.
A look at the coming races shows a potentially dismal outcome for Clinton. Obama will win Virginia, Maryland, and D.C. Then he will win Wisconsin and Hawaii. Clinton’s supposed strongholds will be Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. But those states won’t vote until after the continuing Obama wave, and so we cannot completely accurately predict yet what will happen there.
It looks as though Obama has picked up enough momentum to very likely topple the Clinton machine and put to rest the myth of her inevitable presidency. If he can continue to enunciate specifics, while maintaining his powerful orations and likable image, Obama will win the nomination, and very possibly – even probably — the White House.
